In the aftermath of the deadly explosion at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, France’s military intelligence agency, the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM), has presented a compelling conclusion. On Friday, the DRM asserted that a misfiring Palestinian rocket, not an Israeli missile, was likely responsible for the blast.
According to a senior French military official, the DRM’s analysis, based on classified information, satellite imagery, and intelligence shared by other countries, pointed to an errant Palestinian rocket carrying approximately 5kg of explosives as the probable cause. The assessment dismissed Israeli involvement, citing the size of the explosion and the relatively small impact crater as inconsistent with a missile strike.
While the DRM did not provide an estimated death toll, it suggested that the figure was likely lower than the 471 fatalities reported by Palestinian officials. This revelation comes amid conflicting accounts of the incident, leading French President Emmanuel Macron to order the usually discreet intelligence agency to disclose its findings.
The intelligence assessment aligns with a wave of claims and counterclaims surrounding the hospital blast, sparking protests across the Middle East. Palestinian officials attributed the explosion to an Israeli airstrike, while Israel placed blame on a rocket fired by the armed group Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a claim the group has denied.
The United States’s National Security Council shared its “current assessment” earlier in the week, absolving Israel of responsibility, while Gaza’s health ministry reported 471 casualties, a figure disputed by Israel.
As tensions escalate, the United Nations has called for an independent investigation into the explosion. Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the UN Human Rights Office, emphasised the urgent need for accountability, underscoring the complexity of a situation fraught with geopolitical implications.