A recent study led by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health sheds light on the impact of Texas’ 2021 abortion ban on infant mortality rates. The study reveals that infant deaths in Texas increased significantly in the year following the state’s ban on abortion in early pregnancy, particularly among infants with congenital anomalies.
Background
The Texas law, known as Senate Bill 8 (S.B. 8), prohibited abortions after a fetal heartbeat could be detected, which typically occurs around five to six weeks of gestation. Enacted on September 1, 2021, S.B. 8 was the most stringent state abortion law in the country and did not allow exemptions for congenital anomalies.
Study Findings
The researchers analysed monthly death certificate data from Texas and other states in the U.S. between 2021 and 2022. Here are the key findings:
- Infant Deaths in Texas: The number of infant deaths in Texas increased from 1,985 in 2021 to 2,240 in 2022, representing a year-over-year increase of 255 deaths. This corresponds to a 12.9 per cent rise in infant deaths in Texas, compared to a 1.8 per cent increase in the rest of the U.S. during the same period.
- Causal Impact of S.B. 8: To estimate the causal impact of S.B. 8, the researchers focused on changes in expected infant deaths in Texas from March to December 2022. They found that there were 216 excess infant deaths during this period, likely attributable to the state’s abortion law. This represents a 12.7 per cent increase above the expected 1,697 infant deaths.
- Neonatal Deaths: Neonatal deaths (deaths within the first 28 days) also followed a similar pattern, with an estimated 145 excess deaths in the post-policy period. These effects were not observed in other states.
- Relevance and Implications: The study is among the first to examine the impact of the Texas abortion ban on infant mortality. It highlights the unintended consequences of restrictive abortion policies, affecting both infant health and families’ well-being.
Policy Context
The study’s lead author, Dr. Alison Gemmill, underscores the relevance of these findings in light of the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade and returned abortion policymaking to individual states. The rollbacks of reproductive rights in many states underscore the importance of understanding the broader implications of abortion restrictions.
Methodology
The researchers analysed infant death certificates in Texas and 28 comparison states from 2018 to 2022. They excluded the District of Columbia and states with fewer than 10 infant deaths per month. March 2022 was chosen as the first cohort exposed to the Texas abortion policy, as these infants would have been approximately 10 to 14 weeks gestation when S.B. 8 took effect.
