Life-threatening storm surges are expected to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast this week as Hurricane Milton intensifies. The storm, upgraded early Monday to a Category 4 hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday evening.
The National Hurricane Center confirmed Milton’s rapid intensification Monday morning, with sustained wind speeds reaching 150 mph. The hurricane initially strengthened to a Category 3 by 7 a.m. ET, and just two hours later, it intensified to a Category 4.
The storm’s trajectory indicates it will reach peak intensity on Tuesday morning before potentially weakening to a strong Category 3 upon making landfall late Wednesday between 6 p.m. and midnight. Authorities across Florida are preparing for widespread evacuations.
Life-Threatening Storm Surge and Flood Watches
As many as 15 million people across Florida are currently under flood watches, and 11 million residents are at risk of tropical tornadoes through Tuesday and Wednesday. The greatest risk from Milton is the anticipated storm surge, which could reach 8-12 feet, especially just south of the storm’s center.
A storm surge warning has been issued for Florida’s Gulf Coast from Flamingo to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The National Hurricane Center warns of the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising waters, while a hurricane watch has been implemented for areas from Chokoloskee to the Suwannee River. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for locations further west to Indian Pass.
The hurricane is forecast to bring up to 15 inches of rain across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys by Wednesday night, which could lead to flash flooding.
Government Response and Preparations
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis held a news conference on Sunday, announcing ongoing efforts to clear debris from the aftermath of Hurricane Helene to reduce hazards ahead of Milton’s arrival. He confirmed emergency declarations for 51 counties, urging residents to prepare for evacuation.
The coastal city of Anna Maria, south of Tampa, will begin mandatory evacuations at midday on Monday, while Pinellas County has also started mandatory evacuations for long-term care facilities. State officials, however, stressed that people can leave voluntarily even before official evacuation orders are given.
Schools and colleges are also taking precautions, with all public schools in Collier County closed from Monday through Thursday. Polk County, to the east of Tampa, has published a list of available shelters, including three pet-friendly ones.
The National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office has issued warnings for catastrophic wind damage in Gulf Coast counties such as Sarasota, Pinellas, and Lee. “Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous,” the office urged residents.
Unusual Path and Record Warm Waters
Milton is taking an unusual path by approaching Florida from the west. Since 1850, only two storms originating in the Gulf’s Bay of Campeche have made landfall in Florida. Adding to the uniqueness, the Atlantic has three simultaneous hurricanes—Kirk, Leslie, and Milton—for the first time on record in October.
Florida is still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in the Big Bend region on September 26, resulting in more than 230 deaths across six states. Milton’s rapid intensification has been attributed to record-warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which are 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above average—a phenomenon linked to climate change, which is causing rapidly intensifying hurricanes to become more common.
International Alerts and Warnings
The Mexican government has issued a hurricane warning for the Yucatan Peninsula coast, from Celestun to Rio Lagartos. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track shows that Milton is expected to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula before crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaching the west coast of Florida by Wednesday.
Residents across Florida are urged to prepare for what could be a catastrophic storm, with emergency services ready to respond as Hurricane Milton barrels towards the coast.
